Assessing the Possibility of Improving Iran's Life Expectancy by Eliminating Major Causes of Death During 2006-2015

The aim of this paper is to assess the trend and age –sex pattern of potential improvement of Iran’s life expectancy by eliminating three major causes of death (cardiovascular disease, cancers and unintentional injuries) in recent decade. The theoretical framework of this study is based on the mortality, epidemiologic and health transitions. The data employed for the years 2006 and 2015 in the whole country were derived from the Death Register System of the Ministry of Health & Medical Education. After correcting of under enumeration, the data was analyzed using multiple decrement life tables, decomposition method and potential gain in life expectancy by eliminating major causes of death. Results showed that the possibility of improving life expectancy by eliminating cardiovascular disease was decreased in 2015 compare to 2006, but its role remains significant. Moreover, reduced possibility of improving this index due to unintentional accidents for both genders are evident. In contrast, the possibility of improving life expectancy has increased by eliminating cancers for both genders. In addition, life expectancy at older ages, especially during elderly has been improved by elimination of cancers. These results are indicative of some evidence of the country's entry into the fourth stage of epidemiological transition and the second stage of health transition (cardiovascular revolution).