Explaining Factors Affecting the Issue and Redemption of Mutual Fund Units: Comparison of the Behavior of Stock Funds and Fixed-income Funds

The main goal of this research is to explain factors affecting the issue and redemption of units of mutual funds. For this purpose, a sample of 60 mutual funds was reviewed for a period of 64 months from March 22, 2012 to July 22, 2017 with a breakdown of 42 stock funds and 18 fixed-income funds. In this study, two methods of support vector machine (SVM) and logistic regression analysis and 5 variables of fund return, fund size, market performance index, capital market transactions volume and currency volatility were used for prediction. The results of the study showed that the behavior of fixed-income funds and stock funds was both different from each other in terms of predictive power and the number of meaningful and effective variables on the prediction of issue and redemption of units. In fixed-income funds, two variables of fund return and market performance index and, in stock funds, all variables were found to have a significant effect on the issue and redemption of fund units. Although the ability to predict the analyzed variables in stock funds was higher than fixed-income funds, the power of support vector machine (SVM) and logistic models was almost equal. Reaserch’s findings can be helpful for investors in selecting mutual fund group and considering variables affecting the units issue and redemption.