The Study on Population Growth of New Towns Comparing to Rival Settlements in Iran

The first unplanned settlements with unprecedented population growth rates appeared around Tehran in the 1990s and gradually spread to other metropolitan areas of Iran, such as Mashhad, Isfahan, and Tabriz. Settling population in new towns with the simultaneous implementation of social housing policies (Mehr Housing), has raised doubts that whether the population growth of new towns is inherent or is due to the social housing and high growth in metropolises? This uncertainty has complicated the conceptual and causal model of determinants of population growth of the cities. By secondary analysis of data from censuses and second hand sources, this paper aimed to investigate population growth and its determinants of new towns comparing to rival settlements, as rivals of new towns. Findings indicated that the correlation between time-travel and housing prices with population growth rate of the cities is affected by the mentioned conditions and most probably is recursive causality. Travel time shorter than 60 minutes does not have a significant effect on the growth, and increasing travel time to the mother city only has a negative effect on population growth when exceeds 60 minutes. Also, the direct correlation between housing prices and population growth is contrary to expectations and possibly indicates a recursive causality via the positive effect of population growth on increasing demand and housing price. The distance between the cities and the center of the metropolitan as a constant variable over time, has a negative effect on the population growth of the cities as expected, although positive effect of this variable shows a theoretically insignificant association, up to 50 km distance. Research details show that the new towns are completely different, as their population growth rate are unique and unprecedented. Improving land and housing status, as well as developing more convenient and faster public transportation to access the metropolis, can improve the population growth rate of new towns.