Variability of agricultural crops (wheat and barley) in past and future climatic conditions (Case study: Izeh city)

One of the most important concerns in the world today is the debate over climate change and its consequences. In this study, in order to investigate the level of wheat and barley cultivation in past and future climatic conditions, first rainfall, average temperature, minimum and maximum temperature data in the statistical period (1998-2018) were received from the Meteorological Organization. The Kendall Mann test was used to study the trend of changes in meteorological elements. After that, the cultivation calendar was extracted from Landsat 8 images using the NDVI index and then using Tm, Etm, Oli, and Sentinel-1 sensor images in the Google Earth engine system by calculating the index. Monthly NDVI and SVM classification process Estimated crop area in different years was estimated. Finally, the SDSM model was used to simulate and predict meteorological elements by 2040.

According to the wheat and barley cultivation calendar, the cultivation of these crops in Izeh city starts in January and reaches its peak of greenery and growth in April, and finally from June the crop is harvested from agricultural lands. In Izeh city, there is an almost direct relationship between rainfall and cultivation area. With increasing rainfall, the area under cultivation increases. With increasing temperatures, the amount of cultivation area decreases to some extent. In the future climate conditions, all three scenarios predict an increase in the minimum and maximum temperature by 2040 by 0.7 degrees Celsius. In the rainy conditions of the past climate, in two decades, the area of ​​cultivation will decrease by about 7.4square kilometers, and in the conditions of the future climate, it will decrease by about 11.4 to 15 square رkilometers.That is the cultivated area decreased by 8 square kilometers per decade