Earthquake risk zoning of the Urmia city and surrounding areas by the probability

Abstract The study area to the west of Lake Urmia includes the city of Urmia and surrounding region. In this study, Ez-Frisk and kijko software have been used to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of this area. The return period of earthquakes and seismic coefficients of the region was calculated by Gutenberg-Richter method by Zmap software. The results of this study show that the probability of earthquakes with magnitudes above 6 Richter is about 10% in the next 100 years. The high level of b-value seismic parameter indicates the frequency of low magnitude earthquakes and high seismic rates in the region.The results of probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis by Ez-Frisk software for linear and seismic sources around the city of Urmia at a radius of 100 km indicate 0.4 g bedrock acceleration in the 475 year return period. The earthquake risk map in Urmia also shows the highest acceleration in the southwest and the lowest acceleration in the east of the Urmia city.