Identifying and prioritizing the multi-dimensional factors affecting the process of brain drain (analyzing and predicting the fourth wave of this phenomenon in Iran: from 2011 to 2025)
Economic, political and social development in any country significantly depends on human capital and the knowledge created by them. Therefore, the immigration of these professionals and experts undoubtedly decreases or stops the rate of speed of development. Hence, maintaining, keeping and helping develop the manpower of these experts is of vital importance. Furthermore, identifying the factors which influence the decisions of these experts and prodigies causing them to migrate would make policy makers more aware of the reasons behind loss of human capital. As a result, new policies can be put in place to stop or decrease the future loss of human capital. This paper aims to identify and prioritize influencing factors on the brain drain trend so that it may be used for future policy-making as we are now in the midst of a forth wave of this phenomenon, and to also provide strategic futuristic tools. This was achieved using the Delphi Method. The findings obtained by this paper show that, in order of greatest degree of influence to least degree of influence, educational factors, livelihood, social factors, political factors, and economical factors will be the most important elements affecting the brain drain trend in the following years. This paper also provides recommendations, which are based on research findings, for policymakers to take into account.
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Strategic Foresight for the Urban Tourism Industry in Iran (Case: Qazvin City)
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