delphi method

The aim of this research is to provide a model to identify the potential of business clusters and factors and indicators affecting their formation in the less developed regions of Iran. The type of applied research is mixed, mainly using the Delphi method and interpretation, inductive, and survey in terms of data collection. The sampling method was non-random, judgmental, purposeful and criterion-oriented qualitative stage and the snowball sampling technique was used. 18 people ended at the end of the fourth round and reached consensus and appropriate agreement. In the quantitative stage, random sampling and a number of 134 experts were used. Average tests of a population were used with Spss software, and structural equation models and confirmatory factor analysis were used with Smart Pls software. The findings show that ten factors and forty Seven key indicators include: location factor and geographic location, policy factor, economic factor, cultural and social factor, human capital and technology factor, education factor, opportunities and threats factor, product or service factor, expandability factor, foresight factor and factor The market and 47 indicators, as explained in the text of the article, are the main elements of the potential for the formation and formation of business clusters in the less developed provinces of Iran, the meaningful relationship between the extracted factors and indicators with the subject of the research was proven. Suggestions: Accelerate the implementation of orders The resistance economy is the establishment of the national observatory of clusters, supporting the development of clusters based on indigenous knowledge.

Political sociology has experienced many changes throughout history, and the latest example of these changes is the cultural turn. The cultural turn in political sociology may not be the same in all societies and may differ from one society to another. The article seeks to show to what extent the cultural turn in Iran's political sociology has occurred in the last two decades and what components it depends on. If a cultural turn has occurred in Iran's political sociology, to what extent does political and social construction contribute to it? The data of this research has been collected by using various new theories, semi-structured interviews, expert questionnaires, writing slips from texts and documents. Also, the fuzzy Delphi technique is used as the methodological framework of the article. The evaluations showed that the cultural turn in Iran has occurred and 21 components have been identified. These components can be used as a model in measuring the degree of cultural turn in Iran's political sociology. If we consider political sociology as the relationship between government and social construction, 20 of the 21 identified components are related to social construction and 1 component is related to political construction. The results of the research show that in Iran's political sociology, the fundamental change and transformation that happened was in the social structure and the political structure did not undergo fundamental changes.

This urban issue of terminating and ignoring such buildings as heritage of industrial architecture has caused the closure of this constructions, in spite of having an applicable life cycle and architectural principles; however, by some reactions from various institutions and to promote economic and social sustainability, the condition for having a new application and restoration these industrial buildings as a heritage is provided, which are examples of the experiences of adaptability in Iran as the main focus of this research. Therefore, the aim of this research is to review the successful experiences of multi-functional and universal adaptable architecture to compare their strategies with the heritage of industrial experiences in the city of Tehran. In this research, the studies of adaptability for universal samples are considered as the basis for exploring the multi-functional architectural strategies. The approaches include three physical layers of the building structure, facilities and facade, which have been evaluated by using Delphi method on the heritage of industrial architecture in city of Tehran as a statistical population. The non-parametric statistical tests of Cochran's Q test and Friedman's test, were applied to analyze data; the theoretical sampling method for both statistical population (Tehran's industrial architectural heritage) and (relevant experts) was adopted. According to the expert’s ideas, the strategies of two-layered structure and facade in the target buildings were confirmed; according to the data analysis, ‘Argo Factory’ had the highest Degrees of Freedom (df) regarding the structure layer, and in relation to the facade, the ‘Iranian Artists Forum’ with the highest average test rank, showed the highest conformity of the facade and the structure. However, regarding the facilities, no compliance of the facility was found. The industrial architectural heritage of Tehran includes some buildings that reused for another purpose as: Argo Factory (changed to Argo Contemporary Art Museum & Cultural Centre), Iranshahr Barracks (Iranian Artists Forum), Beryank Hosiery Factory (Haftchenar's Museum of Wildlife and Natural Monuments) and Qasr Prison (Qasr Garden Museum/ Museum of the Qasr Prison). The target buildings were ranked according to the data acquired by calculating mean rank for the strategies were applied for each layer. According to the results, two characteristics were found in the industrial buildings that can highly affect the adaptive reuse of the heritage of industrial architecture, 1. the concentration of the structure at the lowest points and limited spaces with more free spaces compared to its counterparts, and 2. the adaptation of the building facade to the structure.

Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) is one of the largest dams in the whole world, located in Turkish Kurdistan.Delphi method andBarryBuzan’s regional security complex theorywere used as our research methods. The question we’re addressing in this study is “what are the implications of GAP for Kurds' political participationand Turkey’s national identity?”Based on the research hypothesis, the answer to the research question is that GAP can improve Kurds’ political participation, reduce PKK activities, and change the military nature of Kurds’ attempts to political ones. But GAP won’t lead to a common national identity in Turkey. Delphi results with 60% of the vote suggested that GAP has no impact on PKK activities and it hasn’t improved the political participation of Kurds.Delphi results with 73% of the vote indicated the negative effects of GAP on Kurdish identity. Also, Delphi's results with 82% of the vote showed that GAP didn’t lead to a common national identity in Turkey. GAP had not any significant effect on PKK activities and Kurds’ political participation, and these are affected by other parameters. GAP has adverse consequences for Kurdish identity including the destruction of Kurdish antiquities which are a part of their identity. The identity crisis in Turkey is the result of the denial of Kurdish identity by the Turkish government and acts of violence, lack of racial, cultural, historical, and linguistic affinity of the Kurds with the Turks, and the forced inclusion of the Kurds within the political borders of Turkey. Therefore, due to the suppressive attitude of the Turkish government toward Kurdish regions, approaches such as assimilation and projects like GAP will not yield a common national identity in the country.

One of the important issues of the electoral system is recognizing its related harms. The purpose of this study is to identify the harms of the Iranian electoral system and provide effective solutions to eliminate these harms. For this purpose, the leading research seeks to answer the question, what are the harms of the electoral system of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the solutions to solve it? To answer this question, the Delphi method was used and researchers, the views of 15 experts , In the field of elections were collected in three stages and in the form of a questionnaire. The views of experts were analyzed and the findings showed that the most important harms of the Iranian electoral system are the weakness and inadequacy of the election laws; The lack of a party-centered system in the elections and the lack of effective oversight of candidates' campaign expenses. Also, taking into account the conditions and characteristics of Iran, a serious review or re-drafting of the election law in full; Strengthening the party-centered system in the elections and efficient monitoring of the ceiling and the amount of candidates' propaganda expenses have been among the most important solutions proposed by experts to eliminate the harms of the Iranian elections.

Background and Goal: 

In an era where rapid and increasing change is one of its characteristics, the pace of decision-making has also created conditions that have shortened the time for interaction, reflection and decision-making for managers. In fact, today's managers find themselves forced to make more decisions about a wider variety of issues and problems in a shorter period of time. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify and rank the factors affecting managers' decisions using the Delphi method.

Given the qualitative nature of the study, after library research and reviewing the related literature, in-depth interviews with experts are conducted. The outcomes are analyzed in the light of the Delphi method.

In first, 93 indicators identified to explaining the decision-making system. After checking the indicators by experts, only 76 indicators were verified. According to the results of this research model, it was found that the most important components in managers' decision-making were, respectively, the priorities of "correct definition of the proble", "high motivation and self-confidence", "personal knowledge and experience", "effective scheduling mechanisms, timely design and implementation of decisions," and "experimental execution of decisions before final implementation of decisions".

Government agencies need specific decision-making models because of their characteristics. For example, due to the existing differences in terms of cultural, economic, socio-political, technological and demographic system of Iran with other countries, especially Western countries, it is necessary to provide a specific model appropriate to this culture.

Drug trafficking and addiction precede social conditions and system. This phenomenon is also the result of cultural, social, political and economic structures in the international system. This study was conducted to investigate strategies to combat drug trafficking from a public policy perspective. The method of this research is applied research in terms of purpose, Delphi in terms of qualitative method. The number of Delphi specialists in this study is 20 experts in the fight against drug trafficking. The tool of this research was a questionnaire with interviews. Political-legal and socio-cultural solutions are in the next stages. The results showed that the problem of drug trafficking is not only rooted in the existence and transportation of this product (drugs) into the country and to provide the best solutions, other issues and problems of the system should be considered. Among these problems, it is closest to the economic problems of the society.

The strategic position of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region and the international system and the failure of the domination system in the field of severe and costly threats has changed the strategy of the enemies of the Islamic system and the use of existing capacities in cyberspace to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran.  Cybersecurity is one of the components of national security that should be seriously considered and evaluated on an ongoing basis. Proper assessment of cyber security identifies the strengths and weaknesses of countries in various fields and by planning and providing the necessary strategies, ultimately leads to its promotion. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to achieve a native model of cyber security assessment of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Based on the orders and measures of the Supreme Leader, upstream documents in the field of cyber and documents of global institutions and using the clustering technique in content analysis and Delphi method, five concepts of governance, legal, empowerment and capacity Construction, defense-security and socio-cultural were identified as the main dimensions of the cyber security assessment model and then the components and stakeholders of each of these dimensions were extracted and finally the cyber security assessment model of the Islamic Republic of Iran was presented after approval by cyber experts.

The current research was carried out by identifying the effective factors on the improvement of the implementation capacity of the renewable energy policies of the vision document 1404 at the level of analysis of policymaking and policy implementation experts of the Ministry of Energy and related organizations, including Tawanir and Satba and regional electricity companies. The current research is of a qualitative type, which was conducted with the fuzzy Delphi method. The statistical population of the research was 21 experts and experts in this field, who were selected by purposeful sampling and a combination of purposeful judgment and snowball sampling, which reached the saturation point. Information analysis was done in three stages with the fuzzy Delphi method, failure mode analysis method and fuzzy Dimetal method, and the findings of the research are the importance of six policy formulation factors, policy implementers, management factors, structural factors, financial factors and environmental factors and the components that explain it. ; it shows. According to the obtained results, the dimensions of policy development include the five dimensions of transparency of the concept, clearness, dynamism and flexibility and policy goals; The dimensions of policy implementation include political trust, procedures and fair distribution, political affiliation and participation; The dimensions of management factors include the commitment and experience of executive organizations, policy evaluation in appropriate time frames, the alignment of the government's executive programs; The dimensions of structural factors include appropriate organizational structure, policy implementation infrastructure, policy implementation instructions, appropriate monitoring system; The dimensions of financial

The present study aims to provide a model for branding tourist destinations with emphasis on digital marketing. Therefore, 45 articles between 2010 to 2020 using the systematic review method and Delphi technique have been reviewed. The statistical population included 25 experts in this field. In the first round of the Delphi method, the average of the experts' opinions out of 57 questions, 11 questions were lower than the mean of the spectrum, which was recognized as a minor criterion and was removed from the questionnaire. In the second round of the Delphi method, the questionnaire had 46 questions, which based on the average opinions of experts, out of 46 questions, 6 questions were removed from the questionnaire. In the third round of the Delphi method, the questionnaire had 40 questions that the average opinions of experts on the fuzzy value of all questions are higher than the average of the spectrum. So all the remaining questions are very important. According to the opinions of experts, the achievement of questions to the community level and the lack of removal or addition of new indicators to the research, it was determined that the condition for stopping the research has been provided.

According to the forecasts of reputable international centers, natural gas will play the most effective role in the future of world energy. Because Iran has one of the largest natural gas reserves in the world; This energy source can be considered as the main advantage of Iran in the domestic and international arena. In the meantime, one of the options facing the country is the export of this energy source. Considering that the export of natural gas, in addition to economic benefits, has many political-security benefits for the country; Determining the goals and scenarios for the advancement of natural gas exports has always been one of the main issues facing the country's energy sector. Target countries are interested in not limiting the source of their natural gas supply to fixed and specific sources; Therefore, they have long paid special attention to Iran. Therefore, it is important to study the future status of Iran's natural gas exports. The purpose of this study is to design scenarios for the country's natural gas exports until 2050 using the opinion of the elite and the method used in the research is a combination of the Delphi method and interaction analysis method. The three factors of Iran's isolation from the world trade and financial system, the political influence of powerful countries in the target country and the status of natural gas resources, their production and development in the target countries have been identified as key factors and based on future trends Three key effective factors, four compatible natural gas export scenarios were identified. Finally, after explaining each of these scenarios, policy recommendations have been made to achieve a favorable situation in Iran's natural gas exports.

Leveling and securing vital and sensitive facilities and infrastructure as well as major arteries and intersections of the city is one of the main missions of the non-operational defense in the urban area. Different criteria are presented for leveling projects. The current research is aimed at providing a conceptual framework for identifying the factors causing complexity in urban infrastructure projects to scale them from the perspective of non-operating defense. To achieve this goal, using a meta-analysis method, the list of factors of complexity in the project was extracted from previous studies and was subjected to a test of a group of urban project experts and managers after the implementation, refinement and refinement. This is important through the use of consensus-specific methods and, in particular, the Delphi technique. The Delphi panel is composed of 42 executives and experts in urban projects, and after two implementation runs, there are 37 factors organized in the form of a conceptual framework based on the type and origin of complexity. The results of the studies show the significant impact of underlying and environmental factors on the complexity of the projects, as well as the greater weight of the organizational and structural complexity of the technical complexity.

As a new entity, ISIL has carried out the most violent actions under the flag of Islam and pursued the idea of forming “Welayat-i-Khorasan” in its governmental vision. According to this perspective and subsequent steps such as the announcement of the existence of ISIL raises the question of what implications the strengthening of ISIL's presence in Afghanistan will have for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Based on the Delphi method as one of the well- known techniques in futures studies, the paper has tried to explore different aspects of the issue by taking advantage of the opinions of elites and prominent experts of Afghanistan affairs. In order to answer the above question, seventeen experts on Afghanistan issues who were selected through the Snowball sampling method answered questions about the various aspects of this issue during four Delphi rounds and out of 19 questions, 14 of them came to a consensus. The findings indicate that the strengthening of the presence of ISIL threatens the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran both domestically and internationally. Opportunities such as expansion of technical and intelligence cooperation or establishing regional and international arrangements are likely subject to do so, but are not significant in comparison to the threats posed. Also, regarding the current differences in the form and nature of ISIL's presence in Syria and Afghanistan, it seems that not only Iran cannot choose the exposure method of Syria but also must not do so.

Economic, political and social development in any country significantly depends on human capital and the knowledge created by them. Therefore, the immigration of these professionals and experts undoubtedly decreases or stops the rate of speed of development. Hence, maintaining, keeping and helping develop the manpower of these experts is of vital importance. Furthermore, identifying the factors which influence the decisions of these experts and prodigies causing them to migrate would make policy makers more aware of the reasons behind loss of human capital. As a result, new policies can be put in place to stop or decrease the future loss of human capital. This paper aims to identify and prioritize influencing factors on the brain drain trend so that it may be used for future policy-making as we are now in the midst of a forth wave of this phenomenon, and to also provide strategic futuristic tools. This was achieved using the Delphi Method. The findings obtained by this paper show that, in order of greatest degree of influence to least degree of influence, educational factors, livelihood, social factors, political factors, and economical factors will be the most important elements affecting the brain drain trend in the following years. This paper also provides recommendations, which are based on research findings, for policymakers to take into account.

Todays, due to the human desire to maximize extraction of available resources, the world is facing so many environmental threats in terms of pollution in various spheres of the planet. Hydrosphere is one of the most important areas of the biosphere that has suffered most damages from this phenomenon. As a coastal country, Iran is also struggling with problems related to water pollutants and the use of shared resources in its three territorial waters. Khazar is one of these triple territorial waters. The five littoral states of the Caspian Sea disagreements about division of the territorial waters have led many of its problems to be ignored. Environmental crises are the most important of these issues that have had a huge negative impact on the lives and economies of people living in the coastal regions of the sea. Furthermore, contrary to reluctances of states to give up their sovereignty claims in this subject, environmental issues are categorized in low politics, and states show less sensitivity in cooperation on these matters. So, the environmental problems of the Caspian Sea could serve as a platform for initiation of cooperation between coastal states, its expansion to other fields and finally the intensification of convergence between the states. Therefore, the main question of the present article is what kinds of unsought crises can be considered in Iran’s environmental diplomacy agenda with the Caspian Sea littoral states and thereby intensify the convergence with these countries? To answer this question, first we looked at the concept of environmental diplomacy and its relation to cooperation issue in international politics from a functionalist perspective, and showed that the main reason for the relative failures of these long-term negotiations have been the question of how to divide the sea waters and what is the share of each state in this territory; That is, the issue is contained under the high politics. The sensitivity of coastal states to this issue has left many other problems and issues unresolved. The environmental problems of the Caspian Sea are among these problems; Coastal governments, however, have paid much more attention to other issues over the past four decades. For instance, in 2003, they signed the Caspian Sea Environmental Protocol called the Tehran Convention and entered it into force in 2006; and with the signing of Convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea in 2018, they tried to solve some of these problems. However, many of these problems still remain or have not been addressed at all. According to the classical theory of convergence, it seems that further attention to the environmental issues of the Caspian Sea, as issues in the field of low politics, can be one of the starting points for intensifying the level of convergence between five coastal states in order to reach a full and comprehensive agreement on the legal regime of the Caspian Sea. To solve these problems and expand cooperation based on Tehran Convention - as an appropriate legal and political framework that is the product of years of diplomatic negotiations - We have to answer the question, how can this environmental regime be developed? A development that, according to previous statements, helps to intensify convergence. It seems that most of the solutions and environmental negotiations on this matter have been based on planned and centrist policies; because many problems in the negotiation process have been considered insignificant and have not been raised, or there has been no awareness to them at all. Therefore, in our opinion, it is logical that in order to overcome the policy-making weakness in this specialized field, one should refer to experts and specialists who have been directly confronted with the environmental problems of the Caspian Sea for professional reasons. In order to identify the problems that should be included in the future agenda of Iran’s environmental diplomacy in the Caspian Sea based on Delphi method, we tried to gather a panel of experts; those who directly faced with environmental problems of the sea for professional reasons or during their research in the three coastal provinces (Gilan, Mazandaran and Golestan). Using the snowball method, 34 professionals and experts were invited to participate; but only 9 of them continued cooperation until the end of the research and sent their questionnaires. They were asked: 1) in the direct confrontation with the ecosystem of the Caspian Sea and neighboring provinces of the sea, what kinds of environmental problems you have faced? Problems that originate from littoral states pollutant sources and wrong extraction of natural and mineral resources by these countries? 2) What actions have been taken by the government’s Department of Environment or its provincial branches in Golestan, Mazandaran and Gilan or other organizations and the government itself to solve these environmental problems regarding the two above-mentioned subjects at the international level? 3) What kind of problems have been ignored by government’s Department of Environment in these two areas that are common between Iran and other coastal countries, or the Department is unaware of ? They identified 11 pollutant sources and 7 crises due to wrong exploitation of natural and biological resources of the sea and seabed. While expressing Iran’s achievements and constructive actions in this field, they brought up 12 important problems that had been ignored by the coastal states or had not been paid attention to. We have also proposed a series of diplomatic solutions to each of these problems, which we have finally grouped them into five general axes: 1) to establish an environmental diplomacy center under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; 2) proposing a plan to establish International Organization of Caspian Sea (IOCS) ; 3) Participation of non-governmental environmental experts and institutions in Iran’s public diplomacy with the Caspian Sea littoral states; 4) Implementation and promotion of Tehran Convention protocols; and 5) Proposing and following-up of “Joint Environmental Audit on Caspian Sea”, “Preservation of the hydrological characteristics of the Caspian Sea”, “Nuclear safety of the Caspian Sea” and “compliance with environmental standards in exploration, extraction and transportation of oil and gas resources in the Caspian Sea and its continental shelf and Seabed” protocols in order to annex them to Tehran Convention.

Terrorism is a fixed attribute on the horizon of the future of humanity and technological advancements, thought, tactics and terrorism’s weapons have led governments to make a vision in order to reduce the possible vulnerability factor and adopt an active and proactive position rather than passive and reactive position on how to deal with terrorism. The purpose of this study is to study the terrorism and the security of the international system as a future problem, using the Delphi method. For this purpose, participants in this article are 20 experts in the field of terrorism and futures studies. Furthermore, Judgmental and snowball sampling method was used to select the experts and in the process of the Delphi implementation experts reached consensus on 17 questions. The study results indicate that the continuation and escalation of terrorism in the next decade will be the most likely scenario and the stimulus of technological change, globalization, the world population rise and climate change are effective factors in the creation and spread of terrorism. Threats from cyber and internet terrorism will increase in the next decade and terrorist groups will use unconventional weapons and suicide attacks throughout the world to achieve their goals and terrorist groups in the future pose serious threats to military, economic, human, and environmental security. These results indicate that three strategies; 1. integrated global approach to terrorism, 2. preventative strategy in the form of confronting with terrorism and destroying roots and thinking principles and beliefs of it, 3. the strategy of suppression and technical and operational confronting with manifestations of terrorism could be effective against these threats.

This paper aims to examine transaction costs and to propose some indices for measuring them in context of Iranian economy. Analytical-descriptive method is used in this paper. Given this issue’s scientific background, factors affecting on transaction costs and its measurement variables in macroeconomic level are identified and then indices and variables are selected on basis of the Delphi method. Finally, variables are standardized and transaction costs from 1375 to 1386 in macroeconomic level are assessed. The paper finds that factors such as the level of corruption and the rate of inflation have increased transaction costs during this period and situation of economic issues and size of government led to decrease in transaction costs.

One of the major developments in the contemporary world and also in the field of security studies and concepts is to offer extended definition of the security issues even beyond military security. Security has taken political, economic, cultural, cyber- information (media) aspects due to security developments in the contemporary world and the evolution of human needs. Meanwhile, media security has a notable role in creating serious challenges for national security. Media security is of effective importance in the promotion of cultural security and, subsequently, national security of each country, because of its role in disseminating information and shaping public opinion and its orientation. Islamic Revolution of Iran, continuously criticizing dogmatic norms of the structure of international system, has faced structural constraints emerged from international system in the hardware and normative levels. Today, given the changing nature of security threats from hardware to software, media is used as the most important tool in the West and U.S. for globalizing liberal- democracy values. Thus, countries that have different norms from norms governing the international system; seem to encounter the Western media. Given to the importance of the issue, this research will draw prospects for media with attention to possible serious competitiveness in media spaceon the bas is of research methods of futures study (Delphi method) and in doing so, will provide the necessary solutions at three areas of guidanance / promotion, information / education and entertaining / recreation for the media different areas.