Sociological explanation of the factors affecting the tendency to political violence with emphasis on success in unrest and control of unrest (Case study: Citizens of Tehran)

Iranian society is in the context of modernity in accordance with structural changes in social relations and cultural beliefs (especially in metropolitan areas) and these conditions make it necessary to study the causes of social movements in Iran. The present study aimed to explain the sociological effect of success in unrest and control of unrest on the tendency to political violence.

 The present study is explanatory-survey in terms of the practical purpose of its method. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect data. The study population of this study is all persons aged 18 and over living in Tehran in 1399. The sample size was determined to be 1009 persons using SPSS sample power software. The samples of this research were selected by multi-stage cluster method. After collecting information and entering data in SPSS software, Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the variable of political violence was 0.78, success in controlling riots by police was 0.62 and success in mass riots by activists was calculated to be 0.67. Statistical methods such as univariate analysis (indicators of center orientation and dispersion) and structural equation analysis have been used.

The most important findings of this study indicate that age with coefficient (-0.14), education with coefficient (-0.125), success in collective unrest with coefficient (0.451) and success in control riots by the police with coefficient (0/639) have been associated with political violence. The results of structural equations also show that the variables of success in controlling riots by the police, success in collective riots of actors, and age (indirectly) explain a total of 11% of the variance of the research-dependent variable (tendency to political violence).

By this study we could say that by increasing the sense of empowerment of the system and the police in controlling unrest, the sense of success in collective unrest of actors’ decreases.