Analysis of Import Demand Function of Iranian Paper and Paperboard Using Bond Test

Wood pulp and paper as one of the wood products has undergone many changes in the regional and global market share in terms of production capacity and consumption patterns over the past few decades. Due to the limited domestic resources and the increasing trend of wood consumption and its products in Iran, imports have been considered as one of the most important ways to supply the domestic demand. The main intention of this study is to perform scientific analysis of the paper and paperboard market conditions over the period of 1986 to 2018 using Bound Test. The quantitative value of the impact of studied variables on the amount of paper and paperboard imports was calculated using the estimated short- and long-term elasticity. The results showed that among the studied variables the GDP (without taking into account of oil exportations) with elasticity of 2.16% in the short run and 1.26% in the long run, And the domestic wood production from northern forests with amount of -0.69 and -0.57 elasticity in short and long term, respectively; had the most impacts on paper imports. However, the economic sanctions considered as a new variable in this study resulted in a decrease of paper and paperboard imports with coefficients of -0.50 and -0.41 imports, in the short and long run respectively.