Modeling and determining effective factors in distribution of Festuca ovina using Maxent in rangelands of northern Ardabil province

The aim of this study was to predict the habitat expansion of Festuca ovina by maximum entropy method and to determine the effective factors on its spread in the elevation gradient of Moghan-Sabalan rangelands of Ardabil province. The 28 study sites were selected and in each study site 3 transects and along each 100-meter transect 10 plots of 1 1m2 with a distance of 10 meters from each other were selected for sampling. Soil sampling in each study site was sampled from two depths of 0-15 and 15-30 cm. Soil properties using spatial statistics, topographic characteristics using digital elevation model, climatic information using meteorological data of the region, and land use measurements prepared with the help of a user map. Prediction maps related to the distribution of F.ovina were prepared using the maximum entropy modeling method. The role of environmental factors affecting the distribution of the species was investigated using the Jackknife method and response curves. Height variables, slope, patch size (coefficient of variation), potassium (15-30 cm depth), and lime (0-15cm depth) had the highest share in the model. The area under the curve index (AUC) was 0.86, which indicates the accuracy and average efficiency of the model in identifying the most desirable distribution areas. The kappa coefficient obtained from the comparison of forecast and actual maps was 0.72, which is at a very good level.