Soft modeling and explanation of causality between the risks affecting the return on investment in development of refinery units

Analysis and modelling the projects interdependency has become a vital and inevitable issue in project portfolio management. Present study focused on investment risks interdependency modelling in a project portfolio. Risk in projects as an integral element reduces the accuracy of the goals and the efficiency of the projects. Identifying, analyzing, prioritizing and having plans to deal with these potential negative elements play a significant role in the success of the projects. In this paper, using Delphi Method and fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) as a powerful tool in the field of soft knowledge domains occasionally soft operation research, the direct and indirect causality between the risks affecting the return on investment in the development of refineries in Iran are identified and explained. Thus, using a hybrid qualitative and methodological approach, cognitive processes and all the outcomes are based on the system of meaningfulness of the experts’ and professionals’ mental models in the field of refinery. Identified risks generally fall into four spheres of technology, marketing, finance and legal-political. Finally, using soft modeling, a network structure is presented as a potential negative factors affecting the return on investment, which leads to clarifying the dependencies and impact severity of forward and backward chaining. Furthermore, centrality criteria are used as a tool for static analyzing of created fuzzy cognitive map in order to interpret and give the meaning to the causal relationships between nodes.