Structural-Interpretive Modeling Factors Affecting the Physical and Social Resilience of Shiraz to Natural Disasters of Flood

Flood is the most important natural disaster that has caused many casualties and damages in different parts of the country. Considering the possibility of floods in Shiraz and the importance of resilience, especially against floods, this study was planned with aim to model the most important factors affecting social and physical resilience of Shiraz against floods.

Statistical society were selected through purposive sampling that consists of 50 university professors, experts and managers in the field of crisis management in Shiraz. After identifying the dimensions and primary factors, they were evaluated using Delphi method and also structural-interpretive modeling (ISM) method was used in order to analyze the data.

Based on the Mick Mac analysis, indicators of neighborhood status (C11), location of facilities and facilities (C8), capability and effectiveness (C10) and the degree of trust and solidarity (C9) have weak influence and dependence. Indicators of collective action and cooperation (C2), practice (C4), membership in groups and social networks (C13) have high influence, power and dependence. The variables of building strength (C1), access status (C7), type of attitude (C5) are more influenced by other factors and are effective and dependent elements. Awareness indicators (C3), acquired skills (C14), acquired knowledge (C6), procurement level (C12) are among the independent (key) variables that have a great impact on the process of physical and social resilience.

The analysis of the resilience of human and environmental systems against natural disasters such as floods and in analyzing and reducing the vulnerability of cities and neighborhoods, we should not only emphasize the physical dimension and characteristics of communities, but also pay attention to social structures and dimensions to empower citizens and prepare for natural disaster.