Probable Scenarios for New Unilateral US Sanctions Bill against the Syrian Government and Citizens

The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of the unilateral US sanctions, especially the new sanctions bill called "Caesar" against the Syrian government and citizens. Therefore, the questions that can be raised and evaluated in this regard are that: What are the possible scenarios for Caesar's unilateral sanctions on the Syrian government and citizens? Among the proposed scenarios, which one is more likely to be realized and objectified? There are two scenarios for the Caesar sanctions bill; First, there is the possibility of widespread public dissatisfaction among Assad's supporters, and therefore the fall of the government, or at least a change in its foreign policy behavior, is predictable. The second scenario is that the Caesar sanctions bill not only has no effect on the Syrian political system and foreign policy, but it is the Syrian people and citizens who are most affected by the Caesar sanctions bill. The likelihood of a change in foreign policy behavior and the overthrow of the Assad regime is much lower, and unilateral US sanctions will have the greatest impact on vulnerable groups and civilians, and their rights will be enshrined in international human rights instruments such as the Right to Life, the Right to Food. It poses a serious threat to health, the right to work and the right to education. In fact, given the outbreak of the coronavirus in Syria and the historical experience of unilateral US sanctions, the second scenario is more likely to occur and become more serious, especially for the health of Syrian citizens. The research method is based on scenario writing and, for collecting the required information, the Caesar bill, human rights documents, resolutions of the General Assembly, the Human Rights Council and the Special Rapporteur of the Human Rights Council on the negative impact of unilateral coercive measures on enjoying Human rights have been used.