The Future Estimation of Food Packaging Industry in Iran based on a Scenario-Oriented Approach with Respect to 2025 Perspective

Due to the numerous and diverse food industry companies in Iran, the packaging industry is regarded as a stimulus and empowering force for the economy as well as a driving force for the development of domestic production, increase in the exports, improvement of the economic situation of the society, employment, and increase in the national income. According to the 2025 Perspective which emphasizes on improving the domestic production and the resilient economy, it is highly important to plan to improve the food packaging industry. This perspective must be planned in reflexive manner in order to be able to deal with the future uncertainties. Food packaging industry activists are also expected to keep working with regard to the probable market conditions and changes in the world, in order to be able to respond to market changes and survive. Therefore, the present study aims to explain the possible future scenarios in the food packaging industry in Iran with respect to 2025 Perspective.  

The present applied study includes qualitative variables and is regarded as a descriptive research. It has been conducted as a survey using the scenario planning method based on the opinions of a group of managers and experts. In the first step, fuzzy Delphi method was used to identify the effective factors and key uncertainties in the packaging industry, and then three compatible scenarios were developed based on the possible situations for each of the key uncertainties using Scenario Wizard software. Finally, different strategies were proposed for each scenario by the experts.  

According to the research findings, the effective factors and the key uncertainties in the packaging industry include: 1) the regulations for communication and foreign trades, 2) the status of competition laws and the emergence of the new contestants, 3) emphasis on health and safety issues and standards, 4) emphasis on the virtual nature among the people in the society, 5) fluctuations of the foreign currency rates, 6) fluctuations of the inflation rate, 7) direct and indirect costs of packaging, 8) emphasis on various e-commerce tools, and 9) the motivation and willingness of private investors to invest in the packaging industry.  

As a result of identifying the possible situations for each of the key uncertainties, three compatible scenarios were proposed. The "optimistic" scenario, based on which communication and foreign trade regulations are regarded as the probable supports which might lead to the improvement of the industry. The emergence of the new contestants in the food packaging industry will be facilitated which will increase the competition in the industry and lead to the improvement of the target industry as well as the popularity of the domestic products. The emphasis on health and safety issues and standards, on the virtual nature among people in the community, and on various tools regarding e-commerce can lead the manufacturers to invest in the construction and development of Iranian brands. This might help increase people’s demand for diversity in purchasing and improving of the packaging of food products. The "realistic" scenario considers the favorable and unfavorable conditions together. The most favorable scenarios in this regard claim that reduction of the exchange rate and the inflation rate can lead to direct and indirect reduction of the expenses in the industry. Besides, it can facilitate the entrance of the new contestants to the industry. On the other hand, the incentive and willingness to invest in the industry will decrease according to the strict rules and regulations for communications and foreign trades. In addition, the reduction of attention to e-commerce tools will lead to the reduction of the attention of the community to the virtual nature. Finally, the "pessimistic" scenario whose key uncertainties include: strict regulations for communications and foreign trades and the difficulty for the new companies to enter the packaging industry, which leads to the fact that the reluctance of the industry activists to improve the quality of their products and to develop Iranian brands. As a result, the shopping carts of the Iranian customers will be captured by foreign brands, and it may provide the grounds for the collapse and destruction of the Iranian food packaging industry. The failure and destruction of Iranian food packaging industry might be facilitated and even exacerbated through the increase in the foreign exchange rates and inflation rate as well as high direct and indirect costs in packaging in this scenario due to the prevalence of the imported goods at lower prices than the prices of domestic products, lack of up-to-date machinery and equipment, and also bankruptcies of the experienced producers in the food packaging industry. Moreover, it was concluded that foreign exchange rates and inflation rate have the greatest impact on other factors as well as the future of the food packaging industry in Iran.