Foresighting Tehran’s Extra-territorial Jurisdiction using Scenario Writing Method

In the current era, and especially in the context of developing countries, despite the uncertainties, unknowns and complexities that are mostly exposed by external environments and outside the control of the planning system as well as national and transnational spaces, traditional methods of spatial development management and planning have lost their effectiveness in the face of unforeseen and nonlinear conditions. A review of the methodology of the plans prepared in Iran in dealing with the future shows that most of them, from a positivist point of view, consider the future in the form of quantitative models in the continuation of past trends and present simple scenarios in the most optimistic case. The inefficiency of conventional approaches has turned the agenda of the article to the thought and application of new and flexible methods of future research and its integration into the study of extra-territorial jurisdiction; the area of about 6000 square kilometers which is approved by the High Council of Urban Planning and Architecture, which due to the presence of various actors, has become one of the main complexities and uncertainties of this metropolis.In this regard, foresighting methodology has been used in a scenario-based method based on the approach of participatory future workshops. The result is the introduction of three scenarios; pessimistic and chaotic scenario (Extra-Territory as the backyard of Tehran and the metropolitan area as multi-core region and the multiple island community), the scenario of opportunity and gradual improvement (Extra-Territory as a green belt) and the optimistic, progressive and active scenario of the integrated metropolitan government; With the idea that by visualizing these scenarios, a suitable platform for future sustainable decisions, plans and planning will be provided.