Assessing the dispersive effects on urban land-use change (Case study: Tehran metropolis)

Cities, as the center of the human gathering, are always seeking more resources, and their continuous expansion from urban centers to the suburbs and suburban areas, suburban areas, takes people away from natural gifts and realms. The dominant urban development of the twentieth century, in the form of horizontal expansion, had adverse economic, social, and especially environmental consequences, leading to the theory of sustainable development and attention to the environment. Obviously, recognizing the environmental consequences of development can be effective in improving the quality of the urban environment and future planning (Abbaszadeh, 2010). Urban population growth has always been accompanied by changes in the body and the urban environment. In Iran, population growth policies in a particular period, the high attraction of cities and the existence of repulsive factors in rural areas and, consequently, the growth of migration from rural to urban areas, have led to dramatic changes in urban population. This increase in population has led to an increase in urban construction, especially in residential units, and this, in turn, has led to changes in land use. One of the main preconditions for the optimal use of land is to know the land use patterns and to be aware of the changes in each land use over time (Faizizadeh et al., 2007: 78). Urban sprawl is affected by environmental factors and resource problems because urban growth typically changes agricultural and forest lands into sections with tall buildings and increases land resource waste

The research method in this research is applied in terms of purpose. For analysis, Landsat satellite of the Tehran metropolitan area was prepared for the period 1352, 1364, 1379, and 1397. It should be noted that the images taken are related to Landsat satellite (8.5.4) and TM and OLI / TIRS meters, which are in the form of false-color images related to the selected band 7, 4, 2. Then, the status of the intended uses for specific work, which includes 4 classified classes, which are: constructed lands, vegetation lands, barren lands, and water areas. The Fuzzy Artmap model, which is a monitored algorithm, is used to measure and evaluate the status of users and classify satellite images. Then, using the Lcm model, the changes created between the applications are displayed and in the final stage of the model. CA-Markov has been used to predict changes in land use in Tehran until 1410.

At this stage of the research, the land use map of 1353 shows that the constructed lands have an area of 3000 hectares, which is equal to 9.14% of the total area of the region. 5832 vegetation lands, which are equal to 17.5 percent, barren lands, 23971 hectares, which are equal to 73.36 percent, and subsequent irrigated lands, which are 13.93 hectares, which are equal to 0.04 of the area, can finally be mentioned that the lands are Bayer has the highest percentage of area and water areas the lowest percentage at this stage of the year. In the second stage, according to the map (Figure 2) and the relevant data, it can be said that the lands built in 1985, 5751 hectares, which has an area equal to 17.5% of the total land area, compared to the previous year. In 1353, a 17% increase in area and vegetation land with an area of 6181 hectares, which surrounds about 18.83% of the land area, which compared to the year 53, increased by 1% and then barren lands equal to 208744 hectares and 63%. It covers 9% of the land area and 16.8 hectares of irrigated lands, which has decreased by about 0.03%. In the end, it can be said that in 1985, barren lands and vegetation were then built. It has the highest percentage of the area and the water areas have the lowest percentage of area. In the third period, as in previous years, we can again refer to the increasing and decreasing trend of the level that the constructed lands are 8115 hectares, which is equal to 24.7%, which has been facing an increasing trend during three periods, which is 7% to the level. He added that this year's land cover is 4145 hectares, which is 12.6% of the earth's surface, which has decreased by 6% during this period, and it can be mentioned that The barren lands are 20585 hectares, which is equivalent to 62.6% and covers the highest area of the whole region. It should also be noted that compared to before, the level has decreased by 1%. The water areas are 13.14 hectares and the equivalent of 0.50, which is the lowest area of the whole area. In the end, it can be said that during these three periods, water areas have been accompanied by a declining trend Is. Finally, in 1397, for the first time, lands built with 54.6% of barren lands, which are 43%, have increased, and vegetation has decreased by 1.5% and irrigated lands have decreased by 0.01% compared to the previous period.

The results of this research with the findings of Rahimi's research (2014), on the modeling of Tabriz development in 1410 using LTM, Hareini et al. (2016), on urban creep and its effects on land-use change changes, LV research et al. 2012), on the study of urban sprawl and patterns in fast-growing areas, Kobbinah and Amoako Research (2012), on urban dispersion and loss of urban land, Dedi et al. (2016), on urban dispersion And its effects are more consistent with the change in land use in Central Ethiopia. In the end, it can be said that the models used in this study, in terms of having sufficient accuracy and have been able to help solve the problem and determine the changes and developments that have taken place over the decades, they look good models