Water Resources Management Scenarios Based on Futures Studies Approach: Case study of Tabriz County

The emergence of water crisis and the spread of uncertainties in the context of sustainability and the future of water supply makes managers to make critical decisions about water resources management, taking into account the various processes and factors affecting it, in particular the consequences of climate change, population growth, political decisions, and so on.Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate systematically the factors affecting water resources in dimensions of resources together with consumption and define alternative futures in this context based on the considered factors.

Scenario development is one of the suggested tools that can be effective in assessing the future consequences of making decisions and implementing various strategic policies in water resourcemanagement field. This framework has been studied at regional level for Tabriz water resources. According to the nature of the research, structural analysis, scenario writing and Delphi methods have been used.

According to the results, 15 key factors are involved in the availability of water resources in Tabriz. Investigating the possible states in each factor eventually led to 47 possible situations. By thoroughly evaluating possible situations, 7585 possible scenarios, 9 plausible scenarios and 4 scenarios with high probability of future condition of water resources in Tabriz were identified.

According to the current situation, it was observed that there has been a considerable gap to the achievement of the fundamental goals of development and the desirable scenarios. Therefore, strategies and measures for achieving the most desirable future were introduced.