Economic and environmental driving factors of fires in Iranian forests and the controlling strategies

Iranian per capita forest area is as low as one-fourth of the global one. However, the Iranian forests have experienced a rapid degradation and frequently-occurred fire events. Therefore, this study aims to consider driving factors of forest fires in the Iranian forests as well as to investigate the applicable strategies expressed by the selected experts to control and tackle fire. Regression analysis based on provincial data over 2001-2015 was applied to examine driving factors of forest fires. Fire control management analysis is implemented based on experts’ judgment on the offered strategies applying a combined framework of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and TOPSIS model. The results indicated that socio-economic variables are relatively more determinant in forest fires compared to the environmental variables. As for environmental factors, the variable found to be significant is the temperature. It was also found that higher population and road density will increase the possibility of fire events since it gives rise to more usage of the forests. However, higher development level is expected to induce a reduction in fire events as it is associated with higher level of education and income. It was also found that the strategies with higher priority in fire control are more focused on human resources rather than equipment. Pre-fire strategies including “meeting with fire extinguishing body”, “imposing fire fines” and “using forest patrol” are the most prioritized ones while for during-fire events “keeping self-possession” and “fireman on time attendance at the fire place” are the highly recommended strategies.