Multilevel Analysis of Individual and Provincial-level Correlates of Fertility in Iran

Iran has been among the countries with below replacement fertility levels since the 2000s. Fertility behaviors are determined by a broad variety of micro and macro factors. Thus, this study aims to examine the individual and provincial -level determinants of fertility in Iran using a multilevel approach. The 2016 micro-census data from Iran were analyzed for 7000 married women 15-49 years old using HLM software. Fertility behavior was measured as the number of children ever born (CEB). The results indicated that various individual-level variables, namely, education, employment, and rural-urban residence place were significantly associated with CEB. Provincial-level factors such as contraceptive use, internet coverage, and development level index were significantly correlated with fertility. The influence of individual-level factors (especially education) on fertility behavior appears stronger than that of provincial-level factors. We discuss the implications of our findings for the understanding of dynamics of fertility and new pronatalist policy in Iran.