Estimation of Migration Expectancy in Iran’s Urban and Rural Areas, 2016

In recent decades with relative stability in mortality and fertility levels, migration has become one of the most important factors influencing population change. However, due to the lack of data in this area, there are few indicators to determine the level and patterns of migration. The Migration Expectancy Table is one of the few techniques that, based on the rate and age pattern of migration and mortality, provides an individual indicator of migration that is used in forecasting the volume of population movements. In this study, using the 2016 census data, tables of urban and rural Iran’s migration expectancy were constructed according to the gender and age. The findings show the same age pattern but different rates of migration expectancy for both urban and rural routes. The annual urban migration expectancy of women with 0.61 mobility compared to the men with 0.63 mobility shows lower migrations for women. Expectancy to annual rural migration is lower for both sexes than for urban migration, but both follow the same age pattern. With these interpretations, it should be stated that with the predominance of urban migration in the country, we will see a continuous increase in urbanization and due to the peak of these migrations at a young and activity age, it is expected that unemployment sustain in the cities.