An Analysis of the Relationship between Fertility Indices and Population Aging in Iran, Based on Structural Modeling

Today, the phenomenon of population aging and its relationship with fertility indices requires appropriate policies and planning to reduce this phenomenon. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between fertility indices and population aging in Iran based on structural modeling. Using descriptive-analytical method, this applied research has followed the documentary approach for collecting data. To collect data, Iran’s statistical yearbook and the general censuses of population and housing during the years 1335 to 1395 have been used. Findings indicate that during the years 1335-1395, the variables of natural population movements (population patterns) of the whole country had a downward trend and the aging indicators had an upward trend. Also, the results showed that there is a negative and significant relationship between the variable of population patterns and aging in the whole country at -0.881 and with a value of 5.114 t. In general, the factors related to the demographic patterns of the whole country explain 73.9% of the variance of the dependent variable of the aging rate. Considering the aging situation of Iran’s population, the implementation of efficient and effective interventions in fertility indices is necessary to improve the status of aging indices.