Investigating the Impact of Economic Growth and Population Growth on Iran's Insurance Industry Using the System Dynamics Approach (Dynamic System)

In this study, the effect of economic growth and population growth on the Iranian insurance industry with the approach of dynamic systems has been investigated. This research was formed with the initial idea of how to use a systemic approach to combine the different views expressed in the insurance industry and use this useful tool to analyze the problems of the insurance industry, which is an important industry and The key to any country is exploitation. In this study, in order to evaluate the behavior of economic growth and population growth on the insurance industry, the system dynamics approach has been used. It is clear that there are several quantitative and qualitative indicators with different degrees of importance in determining the behavior of economic growth and population growth on the insurance industry and should be considered in decisions. In this study, in addition to identifying the effective indicators in the behavior of economic growth and population growth on the insurance industry, the importance and prioritization of these indicators and the effect of causal relationships on the identified variables have been analyzed and developed in the form of causal loops. Then, by designing the model in the form of a flow diagram, the simulation is performed using Wensim software. Then, in the form of four scenarios, changes in economic growth and population growth and the impact of these changes on the insurance industry have been studied. Finally, it is concluded that increasing the population has a greater role than reducing it in influencing the insurance industry and also increasing economic growth has a significant impact on the insurance industry and the penetration of this industry to reduce it, but in This research has well shown that these two factors, namely economic growth and population growth, act as complementary to each other and, if used together, can help to improve the insurance industry.