The future of Iran-Iraq relations: Possible scenarios

The Middle East is the scene of intense regional and trans-regional competitions. The present study aims at investigating the possible scenarios regarding the future of Iran-Iraq relations. The most possible scenarios include cooperation, competition, and competition along with coordination. This study scrutinizes these scenarios by using historical evidence and focusing upon the geopolitical, political, economic, and identity-related variables. Although it is impossible to confidently prognosticate a scenario for the future relations of two countries, the signs of more cooperation and less tension in the relations of the two countries resulted from a variety of variables and reasons can be seen in the horizon. The most important indicators of possible competition include competition in the oil industry, political leadership, border disputes, regional and trans-regional activism, and environmental problems. On the other hand, the most significant indicators of cooperation encompass common security issues, convergence in the economic sphere, cultural and religious links, humanitarian aids and especially the perception of a common danger from Takfiri groups such as ISIL. Findings of the study indicate that the ‘competition along with cooperation’ scenario has the maximum likelihood of occurrence in the future of Iran-Iraq relations.