Temporal analysis of wheat fusarium head blight progress in greenhouse using epidemiological models

Progression of Fusarium head blight on six wheat cultivar Falat, Tajan, Zagross, Millan, Frontana, Sumai#3 and one resistant line ( SHA3/ SERI/NANJING 833//Lira) was evaluated by various epidemiological models including Monomolecular, Logistic, Gompertz, Log-Logistic and Weibull, under controlled conditions in the greenhouse. In Falat and Tajan cultivars, there was no difference between various models' coefficient of determination (R2), and efficiency for all of them were the same. For Zagross, Monomolecular model with highest R2 and lowest MSe (R2=0.9834, MSe=0.00011), and in Millan, Monomolecular (R2=0.9741, MSe=0.00035) and Weibull models (c=2) (R2=0.9744, MSe=0.00045) were considered to be the best fitted models. In Frontana, Weibull model (c=2) with highest R2 and lowest MSe (R2=0.9918, MSe= 0.000076) was preferred to the others. For resistant line also the Weibull model (c=2) (R2=0.9901, MSe= 0.000089) was accepted as the best fitted model. Sumai#3 cultivar showed little infection and naturally, none of these models were fitted to its data. The nature of monocyclic or polycyclic of the disease was also studied in the present investigation in Falat cultivar. The results showed that spores produced on inoculated spikes could not infect intact spikes.