Estimation the Potential of Cargo Transportation Demand of Afghanistan and Central Asian Countries from Iran's Transportation System: Focusing on Chabahar Port

Freight or transit of goods is one of the most profitable commercial services in the world, especially for countries that are geographically located in the international transit routes. Iran's natural and geographical location can be considered as the most strategic transit routes for Afghanistan and East CIS countries. This landlocked region requires the transit of goods through Iranian ports to access international waters, and this could create the potential for huge cargo transportation demand for Iran. In this paper, based on the gravity model of international trade, an estimate of the potential freight demand of this region is obtained from the Iranian transportation system, especially maritime transport through Chabahar port, and then the cargo potential of this region is estimated for the foreseeable future. The specified model has been estimated by generalized least squares method using the panel data with fixed effects in 30 sections and the period 2010 to 2018 biennially. The results show that the prospect of cargo demand of this region in 2022 is more than 2 trillion $.