Study on the slope stability of embankment dam under different load conditions using deterministic and probabilistic methods

in the present study, the slope stability coefficient of Namrood dam as a case study was calculated for different load conditions, including permanent leakage and completion of construction by using deteministic and probabilistic methods. Geo-studio software package and Monte Carlo simulation techniques were used for analysis. The effect of earthquake load on the stability of the dam structure was also investigated. The results showed that in the present conditions of the dam, the failure probability of the critical sections of Namrood dam was negligible, so that the maximum probability of failure was calculated as 0.00007. Then, sensitivity analysis were carried out on the value and type of distribution of effective input parameters. Results showed that with the increase in the earthquake load by 15%, the probability of dam failure increased by about 100%. The results also showed that the type of effective parameters distributions including cohesion of soil (c), soil friction angle (φ) and unit weight (γ) have little effect on the probability of dam failure.