The Future of Shiite Political Islam in Iran

The phenomenon known as the political Islam is one of the most important phenomena affecting politics, security and culture in the contemporary world. Any fate that the political Islam faces will affect the politics, government, culture and security of Islamic countries, as well as the international arena. This influence on Iran, as the most prominent example of Shiite political Islam in power, is more determinant. Various events, trends and driving forces influence the political Islam evolutions. Futuristic methods can help to understand the trends and drivers of political Islam. The main purpose of the study is to outlin the probable futures of Shiite political Islam based on Velayah in Iran. In this study, with the methods of trend analysis, two-stage Delphi and a panel of experts, an attempt was made to identify the most important trends in Shiite political Islam based on Velayah in Iran and to identify the key driving forces. The results showed that the five drivers of "Iran's influence on the West Asian region", "The growth and development of the political Islam in the Islamic world", "The efficiency of the system of Irans government", "The issue of Palestine and Israel", and "The strength of the resistance front in the region and the victory of Irans allies" have the highest consensus and importance among experts, and determine the future of Shiite political Islam in Iran. By analyzing the events, the trends and the driving forces, it seems that in the future, the republic dimension in Iran will gradually become more prominent and its regional presence will be reinforced.