Ecological niche modeling of vulnerable toad Bufo eichwaldi in the hyrcanian forest of northern Iran

Distributional range shift of Amphibian populations especially toads are tightly related to enviromental changes and their survival are threatened by ecological and anthropogenic factors. Talysh toad Bufo eichwaldi occurs in a limited area through the southern margin of the Caspian Sea including north Iran and the southeast of Azerbaijan and has recently considered vulnerable by IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. In this study, 52 occurence records and 20 bioclimatic variables were used for modeling of habitat suitability of B. eichwaldi using maximum entropy algorithm implemented in MaxEnt software package. The results showed that Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter, Temperature Seasonality, Minimum Temperature of Coldest Month, and Precipitation of Coldest Quarter are the most important predictors for B. eichwaldi suitable habitat. The MaxEnt model indicted that the habitat of B. eichwaldi has been fragmented in the Hyrcanian forest of the south Caspian Sea, which may cause its populaton decline. It is deduced that distributional range of B. eichwaldi in the south of the Caspian Sea experienced contraction due to climate change and human interference comparing to last decades indicating need for conservation programs to protect the Talysh Toad population in the Hyrcanian forest.