Risk assessment and zoning of shrimp fishery unsustainability by using Fuzzy modeling in Hormozgan fishing grounds, Persian Gulf

The aim of the present study was to risk assessment and zoning the unsustainability of shrimp fishery in the shrimp fishing-grounds of the Hormozgan province (Sirik to Toola). Data were collected during two shrimp fishing seasons in 2017 and 2018 (between September and December). The criteria affecting the shrimp unsustainability risks were extracted using international literatures and also conducting some in-depth and semi-structured interviews with the experienced fishermen and knowledgeable researchers. Thereafter, the coefficient of determination was obtained to each criterion by using a quantitative questionnaire. Finally, integration of these criteria was done by fuzzy-neural modeling. Data analysis indicated that 57.35% ±15.6 (±SD) of fishermen are totally satisfied with their job. The maximum value for ecology criteria was 0.56. in Kollahi fishing ground. In Bandar-Abbas fishing-ground, the highest values for fishermen's security threats, satisfaction with existing management status and social conditions of fishing communities' criteria were also computed 0.08, 0.18 and 0.08. The maximum coefficient of determination was belonged to catch volume (with 0.0922) and fishers' livelihood (with 0.409) in Dar-sorkh. The highest unsustainability risk was observed in Bandar Abbas and east of Sirik, while central regions and around of Darsarkh, Toola and Kollahihad the lowest. Ecological criteria were also maximum in the central areas of the province, which is indicating the suitable habitat conditions. The unsustainability risk in Sirik was also due to the low catch rate and the fishermen's livelihood. It sounds that management of the illegal fishing and conservation and expansion of the marine protected areas could helpful to improve sustainability of shrimp fishing in Bandar-Abbas fishing-ground. The fuzzy integrated model obtained in the present study prepared spatial prioritization and determined the criteria affecting on shrimp fishing sustainability in the Hormozgan province, which could more guide the managers to improving fisheries sustainability in the region