Long-term electricity demand forecast by combining interpretive-structural modeling methods and system dynamics
Author(s):
Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:
Electricity demand is continuously increasing in developed and developing countries. The accurate estimation of power consumption in the long-term horizon is of great importance for planning in the field of power generation and the management of the demand section. The use of a single model to forecast the consumption of all economic sectors leads to many errors, due to the different sectors consuming electricity in each country, as well as the difference in indicators and their changes in each sector. Hence, new research has highly considered the use of the decomposition approach of different consumer sectors. In this regard, identifying the fundamental factors of each sector and implementing the relationships between factors in an integrated platform for estimation are the two main issues in this area. The present study proposed a combination of interpretive-structural modeling and system dynamics (ISMSD). This method can evaluate scenarios and design policies to help decision makers. According to this methodology, Iran's electricity demand has been estimated as a developing country. The results of the evaluation highlighted the high accuracy of this method in prediction. Finally, the impact of energy subsidy targeting on Iran’s electricity demand was investigated in three scenarios.
Keywords:
Language:
English
Published:
Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Volume:13 Issue: 3, Summer 2021
Pages:
133 to 152
magiran.com/p2353239
دانلود و مطالعه متن این مقاله با یکی از روشهای زیر امکان پذیر است:
اشتراک شخصی
با عضویت و پرداخت آنلاین حق اشتراک یکساله به مبلغ 1,390,000ريال میتوانید 70 عنوان مطلب دانلود کنید!
اشتراک سازمانی
به کتابخانه دانشگاه یا محل کار خود پیشنهاد کنید تا اشتراک سازمانی این پایگاه را برای دسترسی نامحدود همه کاربران به متن مطالب تهیه نمایند!
توجه!
- حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران میشود.
- پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانههای چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمیدهد.
In order to view content subscription is required
Personal subscription
Subscribe magiran.com for 70 € euros via PayPal and download 70 articles during a year.
Organization subscription
Please contact us to subscribe your university or library for unlimited access!