Simulation of future spatial and temporal changes in land uses and cover in arid areas (Case study: Minab plain)

In the present study, the existing land uses in the Minab plain were simulated using the CA-Markov combined method. For this purpose, land use maps for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020 were generated using Landsat satellite images using the maximum probability classification method and after evaluating the model, the land use map for 2030 and 2040 was predicted using the combined CA-Markov method. Analysis of land use change patterns in Minab plain showed that during the statistical period 2000-2020 in the level of land uses in this area has changed significantly so that during this 20-year period the area of agricultural land use, urban and man-made areas, saline lands and rangelands and barren lands respectively from 38.91, 25.99, 20.09 and 15 % in 2000 to 40.75, 40.02, 12.44 and 6.80 percent in 2020. Evaluation of the model using kappa index above 90% indicates the high accuracy of the model for predicting land uses. Prediction of changes in 2030 and 2040 show that the use of agricultural lands and urban areas and man-made are increasing at a rate of 0.05 and 0.39 %, respectively, which are advancing from the east of the plain to the west; Meanwhile, the uses of saline areas, rangelands and barren lands are decreasing at a rate of 0.44%, which is more evident in the west and northwest of this plain. Finally, one of the most important executive strategies of planners and officials to prevent land use change and ultimately land degradation in this area, can be to improve the cultivation pattern, new irrigation methods, nourish the bed of this plain and maintain and restore native vegetation.