Analyzing the Effectiveness of EU Climate Policies by Simulating Scenarios to Reduce Carbon Emissions from 2021 to 2030 and Its Impacts on Iranian Environmental Strategic Policies Using a System Dynamics Approach

Climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide, has dangerous consequences, the most important of which is global warming. The European Union, as a leader in reducing carbon emissions, has taken a number of key steps and set various policies and guidelines. Analyzing the actions and policies adopted by this union could help determine the correct strategy for environmental protection in our country.

This study presents a simulation model to analyze the effectiveness of EU policies to achieve related aims by 2030 to reduce carbon emissions, using a system dynamic approach to reduce carbon emissions.

The results show that the adoption of a policy alone cannot have the desired effect in reducing emissions. The results also indicate that the EU ETS emission management system alone has the lowest performance in reducing carbon emissions.

The scenario showing the adoption of the EU's three climate policies showed the best impact on reducing emissions by 2030. Among the moderating feedback loops on reducing carbon emissions, and in line with the EU's climate policy, action on energy efficiency and the EU ETS emission management system should be given more attention.