Analysis and Interpretation of Incidence and Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in Iran and World

To accurately estimate the Covid-19 morbidity and mortality, it is necessary to convert the raw data to the incidence and fatality rate.The purpose of this study is to analyze the incidence and Fatality rate of Covid-19 in the world by countries and six regions of the World Health Organization (WHO). By reporting incidence and Fatality rate instead of morbidity and mortality, a more accurate and realistic understanding of the incidence and fatality due to Covid-19 is obtained, which allows comparisons between countries.

In this cross-sectional study, cumulative numbers of incidence and fatality due to Covid-19 for all countries of the world were extracted from the start of pandemic to august 2021. Sources included data published by the WHO, Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran. The World Bank and United Nations websites were used to calculate world morbidity and mortality rates.

The total number of reported cases worldwide is 191,773,590. Iran ranks 13th in the world with 3,603,527 reported cases. However, the incidence of the disease is 24.6 per 1000 population in the world, 16.4 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and 42.9 in Iran. The incidence of the disease in Iran is 74% higher than the global average and 162% higher than in the MENA, respectively. However, Iran rank is 87th among all countries. The fatality rate due to COVID-19 calculated 2.4 % in Iran. The fatality rate in Iran is higher than world (2.15%) and five WHO regions (1.22-2.10%) except NENA region (3.26%). Iran in terms of fatality rate is ranked 67 in the world. However,the fatality rate has decreed from 5.4% in October 2020, which was ranked second in the world after Mexico.

From the beginning of the Covid-19 epidemic until August 1400, the incidence of the disease in Iran is higher than the global average and the four regions of South-east Asia, MENA,the western Pacific and Africa, but less than the Americas and Europe. In terms of fatality rate, Iran’s rate is higher than the global average and five regions of the WHO, and only less than the MENA region.