Investigation of compaction in urban development of Khoy )based on Markov model)

Speedy land-use changes in the suburbs of Iran, in present decades, have posed many problems, including the destruction of natural resources, environmental pollution, and inadequate urban growth. In most cases, these effects were due to unprincipled land-use change. Considering the rate of change and destruction of resources in previous years and feasibility, forecasting of these changes, and the growth pattern of the city in the coming years can be a significant step towards planning and optimal use of resources in the future. In this research, using Landsat multi-time satellite images related to 1986, 2002, and 2019, side information and Markov chain model of land-use and land cover changes that have occurred during 33 years in Khoy city to expose the extent of the changes. Convert for each period and forecast the desired uses. To conduct research, first, the images used in terms of the best bands for band composition were reviewed and selected. Then, the neural network method was used to classify and evaluate the accuracy of classification with the kappa coefficient and overall accuracy. Finally, land-use changes for 2036 were predicted using the Markov forecast model. The results show the uncontrolled expansion of built-up areas and severe destruction of agricultural lands from 2002 to 2019 and the sharp decline of barren lands and their conversion into built-up lands within the city limits and suburbs. Modeling the changes also shows that from 2019 to 2036, the city will change to a Mountainous area and gardens for growth.