Trends of Street Fights/Quarrels in Iran 2013 - 2018: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Perspective

Conflict/quarrel, as one of the indicators of violence, is a social issue still seen in all societies. It occurs between two or more people or groups in a social relationship and can disrupt society order and possesses destructive consequences for disputants and society.

The present study aimed to evaluate points and trends of relative risk (RR) of quarrels in Iran for total population and both sexes separately by using spatiotemporal models.

Official data published by Iranian Legal Medicine Organization (ILMO) from 2013 to 2018 was studied. Spatiotemporal methods were used for analyzing the data and producing relevant maps. These models overcome the problems related to usual estimates of RR and are capable of covering spatial and temporal effects and their interactions simultaneously.

The results showed that Ardabil (P2, RR = 1.32), Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad (RR = 1.1 - 1.3) provinces had the highest risk of street quarrel for total population. The results for males are the same as the results for the total population. There was the highest risk for females in Alborz (P5, RR = 1.38) province. The risk was the lowest for the southern provinces of Iran for the total population (0.3 - 0.7), females (0.3 - 0.55), and for males (0.3-0.6). There was no significant change in RR over time for males and total population. However, there is an apparent decreasing trend for females.

In general, southern parts of Iran have lower risk of street fights/quarrels. Street fight is a multifactor phenomenon that could leave various consequences on society. It seems necessary to conduct further research to find out the reasons for its occurrence in different parts of the country.