Investigating the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables in Reducing Road Trasport Accidents in Iran

The low share of rail transport in the total transport of the country shows that most of the suburban trips are made using roads. This has led to many negative consequences, including increased accidents, damage and casualties on the roads. Accordingly, the issue of reducing casualties due to traffic accidents does not seem logical without considering the role of rail transport. Due to the importance of issue, the purpose of this article is to investigate the role of rail transport in reducing road traffic accidents in the country during 2001-2019.

In this study, the short-term and long-term effects of the role of rail transport in reducing road traffic accidents in the country have been investigated. For this purpose, by collecting annual data and using the self-regression econometric pattern with wide interruption and error correction with the help of EVIEWS10 software, the model has been estimated and the results have been interpreted

The results show that both in the short and long term, with the increase in the added value of the rail transport sector, the number of road traffic accidents decreased. Also, with the increase in GDP per capita, the number of road transport accidents will decrease. The results show that with increasing the Gini coefficient, increasing the population and the length of the country’s roads, the number of road traffic accidents increases. Finally, according to the error correction coefficient in the ECM model, it can be stated that the adjustment speed is appropriate towards the equilibrium and long-term value, so that in each period about 0.51 of the imbalance error is adjusted and the short-term value towards its equilibrium and long-term value.

The results obtained from the research findings indicate that both in the short and long term with increasing value of rail transport sector and GDP, the number of road traffic accidents decreases. Also, with the increase of Gini coefficient, the population of Iran and also the length of the country’s roads, the number of road traffic accidents increases. The results of this research can be effective for policy-making in the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development and Railways of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Roads and Transportation Organization of Iran and the Ministry of Interior.