Analysis of the Evolution of Demographic Rurality (Demographic Structure of Rural Population) in Isfahan Province

Asking questions about the nature of a rural area, attempting to identify its traits, and construing the rurality realm are some of the discussions in rural studies. The concept of rurality has remained ambiguous and concentrating on its different magnitudes and grades is necessary. In scientific discussions, different definitions and categorization methods have been proposed for measuring rurality differences. The population density, population decrease and increase rates, size of habitat, structure of local economy, accessibility, and landscape are some of the studied parameters in this area. The most operational definition, which is used in quantitative studies, is based on spatial and demographic theories as they present a simple definition for geographic categorization. Most of rural areas have undergone population growth regarding their continuous developments. It seems that there is a population stability in some of these areas even if they have not got an enhancement. This article aimed to structurally review and analyze temporal and spatial evolutions of demographic rurality in Isfahan Province.

Isfahan Province as the study area has got 88 and 12% of urban and rural populations according to the census of 2016. The village was the unit of analysis in this research. The statistical community included all villages with more than 4 households (totally 768 villages) based on the databases of two latest housing and population censuses conducted in 2006 and 2016. Considering the mentioned censuses and taking several correction steps, the research data and variables included the number of households, male and female populations (6 years, over 6 years, 10 years, over 10 years, under 14 years, 14-64 years, and over 65 years), total population, number of literate persons, and number of employees. The processed indicators for modeling and analyzing demographic rurality and its evolutions in the studied time sections could be mentioned as family size, sex ratio, youth rate, aging rate, aging ratio, dependency ratio, dependency burden, literacy rate, employment rate, and population growth rate. These indicators were operationalized and calculated cross-sectionally at the beginning and end of the period and longitudinally for evolutions over the period.

After studying nearly 800 villages during the decade, a slight decrease in family size was observed. The sex ratio had averagely increased by 17/3 people. There was a slight decline of the youth (25/0) in the villages. However, there was an extreme range from decreasing by 32 to increasing by 36 in this regard. The aged population had also increased slightly by 76%. Also, the indicator of aging ratio almost showed a similar changing procedure. The dependency ratio had nearly remained unchanged. There was only 22 units of increase in the dependency burden, ranging from 58 to 10. The average literacy rate had undergone an overall increase of 28.3%, but there was a vast variation after considering the villages separately. The employment rate had decreased 86.1% in return. There was not a considerable change in the total population of the villages. It had only decreased to 192 people, which showed a growth rate of 0.004 with the variation of 21 to 6/20% among the villages. Overall, the structural components for rural population in the province had nearly remained unchanged during the studied decade.A significant structural model was found in the province based on the statistical modeling performed for analyzing demographic rurality and its evolutions with the indicators of family size, sex ratio, literacy ratio, aging ratio, dependency ratio, and youth ratio in 2006. The indicators of aging and dependency ratio were compatible with the family size, literacy rate, and youth ratio with a negative impact on demographic rurality, while aging ratio played an intense negative role in it.Spatial analysis was regionally and separately done for 3 types of villages in Isfahan Province based on the developments of population configurations in the rural mountainous, plain, and desert areas. The positive changes in the rates of population growth, household dimension, and literacy and negative changes in the aging rate were observed to be similar in all the studied areas. There was more similarity in the structural changes of rural population in the plain and desert areas, which were weakened by changes in the dependency ratio and strengthened by changes of the sex ratio, thus remaining in equilibrium. In return, the negative changes of employment rate and more appropriate position of the young population within the age composition had caused more weakening and strengthening in the structural changes of rural population in the mountainous areas, respectively