Risk Management Based on Fuzzy Expert Systems in Construction Projects

As projects grow and develop and become more complex, new tools are needed to help manage projects. One of these tools is risk management, because in an unstable and uncertain environment, one can expect Out-of-schedule and unexpected events at any time. Experts' knowledge is often used to assess the risk of projects, but humans always use words and phrases in their conversations that have no clear boundaries. Fuzzy logic is used to deal with such ambiguous words and phrases. Fuzzy set theory is a method that has proven effective in managing uncertainties similar to those mentioned in construction projects. A fuzzy expert system is an expert or knowledge-based system that uses a set of fuzzy membership functions and rules to reason data instead of binary logic. For systems with high uncertainty where sufficient and accurate information is not available, the fuzzy approximation reasoning approach is proposed. Fuzzy system input can be inaccurate information and system processing is done using approximate reasoning. In this study, the risks in construction projects were investigated by obtaining the opinions of experts in the fields of clients, consultants and contractors. By providing steps, we have tried to identify risks, evaluate them, and control high-priority risks using fuzzy logic and expert systems.