The impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the conservation network with respect to the Bovidae and Cervidae family in Iran

Among the various species of mammals, three guilds of the Bovidae and Cervidae family, including red deer – roe deer, goitered gazelle – chinkara, and wild goat – mouflon have always been considered as target species in conservation programs. However the impacts of climate change on the effectivness of the conservation areas (CAs) of Iran is poorly understood. The current research using Speceis Distribution Model (SDM) based on MaxEnt model aims at identifying suitable habitats and hotspot areas for these species in the current time and evaluate the impact of climate changes by 2050. Our results showed that all models obtained AUC > 0.8 revealing proper predictive performances. The comparison of the area of suitable habitats for the current time and 2050 showed that all species, except for chinkara and goitered gazelle, will face a reduction in the area of suitable habitats in the future. Among the speceis roe deer and red deer will experience the greatest habitat loss, 70% and 61%, respectively. The evaluation of the effectiveness of the CAs to cover hotspot areas, Class 4 and Class 5 of speceis richness, revealed that only 12% and 18% of hotspots will be covered by the conservation network in the current time and 2050, respectively. Therfore, the present study by identifying hotspots of these species could be considered as an operative tools for the conservation planning of in the current time and future.