Evaluation and Prediction of Land-Use Changes using the CA_Markov Model

The purpose of this study was to model and predict temporal and spatial patterns of land-use change in the Zayandehrud basin. In this research, the CA-Markov prediction model was used to simulate and predict land-use change. First, the land-use changes from 1996 to 2018 were studied and then the future changes for 2030 and 2050 were simulated. Afterward, the future land-use scenarios were designed. The model was validated by comparing the simulated map of 2018 with the real map, and the kappa coefficient of 94 % was utilized to evaluate the model. Based on the results, the Built-up land-use was altered from 13016 hectares in 1996 to 154194 hectares in 2050. This outcome necessitates the management of the future development of the city. Furthermore, the amount of agricultural land was varied from 177067 hectares in 1996 to 40,000 hectares in 2050. Among all the changes, agricultural lands attracted the most attention and concerns. The results indicated the land-use changes in the form of urban areas and reducing area of agricultural lands. Such alterations were taken place in two distinct stages: urban lands have been developing since 2013, with a direct impact on the reduction of vegetation due to the conversion of agricultural lands into other land-uses. The dynamic trend of changes has also been confirmed and intensified since 1996. In 2018, a significant area of agricultural lands was converted into urban and industrial areas. In addition, the agricultural and orchard lands were 74057 hectares in 2018 and can be reduced to 40,000 hectares by 2050. It revealed 34057 hectares lost as compared to the agricultural and orchard lands in 2018. The present study depicts that the expansion of urban and industrial activities and reducing the level of agricultural land in the region requires more attention and care in land management.