Spatial Analysis of Physical Resilience Components of Ilam City against Earthquake with a Futuristic Approach

Today, the issue of resilience is one of the most important study topics in the world. The aim of this study was to spatially analyze the components of physical resilience in Ilam against earthquakes using a future studies approach.

The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method, which was conducted from 2020 to 2021 in Ilam. A total of 44 specialists in the field of resilience and futures research were selected by the available sampling method and purposefully participated in the study. For spatial analysis of physical resilience components, five indices of the building structure, material type, number of floors, granulation, and age of buildings were analyzed using Geoda 1.20.0.8 and ArcGIS 10.4.1 software. Continuation, using the Delphi technique and application of the cross-impact analysis technique in MICMAC 6.1.2 software, information analysis has been done with a futures research approach.

The studies in the spatial analysis of the components of physical resilience in Ilam city showed that 3975646 square meters, i.e. 68.28% of the total area, are in the range of relatively non-incurable to completely non-incurable and 321789 square meters, i.e. 53 / 5% of the total area is in the average equilibrium range. Key factors explaining the components of increasing physical resilience in Ilam in the future according to the current situation and the degree of the direct and indirect impact of variables on each other and the future trend of physical resilience in Ilam against earthquakes including ground, open space and penetration Susceptibility, population density, strength and structural strength, residential density, access, and land use.

The results of the spatial analysis show that the resilience of Ilam city is in a relatively unfavorable situation. In fact, 68% of the residential fabric of Ilam city is in the relatively uncompromising to completely unsustainable range. Also, the spatial structure of direct map stimuli The method of physical resilience at a rate of 100% in MICMAC software showed that among the 8 primary variables, 3 factors have a key effect on physical resilience in Ilam against earthquakes. These variables are bed ground, open space, and permeability. The results also show that the relationships of key factors are very influential.