Identification and analysis of drivers affecting the development of urban management with a Scenario-based Approach (Case study: Arak city)

Today, city management is of particular importance due to the complexity of its issues and problems. Using new approaches can help solve the problem to some extent. The city of Arak is facing many problems such as air pollution, urban traffic, etc. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is the identification and analysis of drivers affecting the development of urban management in the city of Arak using this tool (scenario writing). The required data and information were collected by library and field methods, and interviewing experts (Delphi method). To analyze the data, MICMAMC software was first used to determine the effect of variables and Morphol software was used to predict the scenarios. Finally, the obtained results showed variables such as macro-national management, international sanctions, lack of attention to citizenship, instability of management, politicization of managers have the most impact on the performance of Arak urban management and have the highest direct impact score. Also, out of 5000 valid output scenarios, 10 scenarios with the highest inertia (probability of occurrence and reproducibility) were presented as the final scenarios. According to the type of scenarios, the management performance of the city is in an intermediate state, which can be improved by moving the middle scenarios towards optimism and prevent the occurrence of catastrophic scenarios.