Forsight of Golestan province tourism industry: scenario and Suggested solutions

The purpose of this research is to Forsight of tourism industry of Golestan province with a scenario approach. This research is in terms of its purpose, in terms of the method, a combination of documentary and scrolling methods and in terms of nature, based on new methods of futuristic, analytical, and explorative science. The statistical population of this research includes all theoretical and experimental experts. The non-probabilistic sampling method is using two methods for judging and snowball sampling. The data gathering tool was a questionnaire and an interview with experts. The results of the first stage led to the identification of five factors And 24 variables related to the future of the tourism industry in Golestan province. And in the results of the second stage of the research (the interaction matrix) based on the output of the Mick Mac application were identified 8 effective factors. The eight factors were used in uncertainty questionnaire Based on the twofold "uncertainty" and "importance" Four scenarios were identified and selected from the combination of two axes: "Tourism entrepreneurship" and "Tourism acceptance culture". Finally, there are suggested solutions for each scenario.