Modeling human casualties in different overnight earthquake scenarios based on the FAlM model (Case study: Kianpars neighborhood of Ahvaz metropolis)

Disasters in recent years have shown that communities and individuals have become increasingly vulnerable and risks have increased. However, risk reduction and vulnerability are often overlooked until after the disaster. The occurrence of a possible earthquake is predicted and examined in line with the main purpose of this study.

This research is applied in terms of nature and descriptive-analytical in terms of implementation method.Theoretical data of the research were collected by library method and after extracting the indicators, spatial analysis of each index was obtained using FAlM model and GIS and Geoda software analysis.

Analyzes show that 35 deaths, 2,638 hospitalizations, 4,509 outpatients and 39,580 were healthy in the Style destruction scenario. In the average destruction scenario, 970 people died, 4509 were hospitalized, 7314 were hospitalized and 33969 were healthy. In the severe destruction scenario, 6079 people died, 7950 people were hospitalized, 10755 people were hospitalized and 21978 people were healthy. In the very serious destruction scenario, 7482 people died, 10288 people were hospitalized, 13093 people were hospitalized and 15899 people were healthy. Also in the scenario of complete destruction of 19172 deaths, 7482 hospitalizations, 9820 outpatients and 10288 healthy people.

In this research, we came to the conclusion that it is possible to calculate the degree of vulnerability to earthquakes using research indicators and to take control measures to reduce the effects of earthquakes based on prioritizing crisis management. Although in the event of an earthquake the central part of Kianpars neighborhood is more vulnerable, but in general it can be concluded that the use of the combined model FAlM in addition to assessing physical vulnerability in different parts of an area, can provide useful information about the situation during, before And after the occurrence of a crisis for the pathology of environmental rescue.