Forecasting the number of dispatches for prehospital emergency traffic accidents in Mashhad

In recent years, accidents have been a major cause of death and have had serious social, cultural, and economic consequences for human societies. Given that Iran is one of the countries with the highest number of injuries and deaths in traffic accidents, and this issue leads to the allocation of a significant volume of prehospital emergency dispatches to accidents. In this study we reviewed and examined the number of dispatches for pre-hospital emergency services to the traffic accidents in Mashhad city.

The present study was a retrospective longitudinal study and included the number of dispatches for prehospital emergency traffic accidents in Mashhad from the beginning of 2009 to the end of 2018. The statistical method used in this research was time series methods, and all analyzes were performed by R statistical software.

The results showed that 74.6% of the injured were men and 25.4% were women. The mean age of the injured was 30.5±16.3, and 70.3% of the injured were under 35 years old. The seasonal time series ARIMA model (0,1,3) (0,1,1) was selected as the best model, and this number predicted for three years.

The seasonal ARIMA model (0,1,3) (0,1,1) was the best model among others, and the forecast of the number of dispatches for prehospital emergency accidents in Mashhad showed a constant trend for the next three years.