Life Expectancy Forecast: Implications for Policy and Economy in Iran

Forecasting health status of populations aims to explain the most likely futuretrends in health, such as the life expectancy trend. Life expectancy has grown notably duringthe past 150 years. Extended survival leads to population aging that is a world-changingevent. Planning and investing in health and social services require anticipating future lifeexpectancy and the corresponding drivers. As a developing country, Iran has experienced animprovement in health and longevity. This study aims to model and forecast life expectancy atbirth up to 2035 and review the economic and policy implications of aging in Iran. This study presents a dynamic simulation modeling of life expectancy and proposesa system dynamics model to give decision-makers an understanding of the interactionsbetween different variables. The equations in the model are estimated using least-squaresalgorithms. The data are derived from the websites of “World Bank”, “Our World in Data”, and“United Nations Development Program.” The computerized simulation results forecast that total life expectancy increases byabout 4.5 years from 2018 to 2035, reaching 81.06. Although improvement in life expectancy is a success and a key goal of a healthsystem, it also suggests a rapid pace of aging in Iran with many social and economic challengesin managing the upcoming situations. However, executing appropriate policies can convertsuch threats into opportunities.