The Impact of Climate Change on the Export of Agricultural Products in Iran

In recent years, climate change has affected the agricultural trade. In the present study, the export of agricultural products has been classified into two groups according to the type of water requirement during the period of 1380-1386 and the effect of two factors of precipitation and temperature on the combined patterns have been tested separately in each group. The results of the estimates of the models show that the sensitivity of exporting the selected products to the precipitation variable in both groups is positive and the intensity of this sensitivity in the higher used water group (25%) is higher than the lower used group (18%). Export elasticity to the temperature index is also evaluated as very high and positive in both models. The export behavior of selected agricultural products in both groups in the face of climatic tensions is inversely U-shaped. According to the research findings, the export of agricultural products in drought conditions will shift to items that are more resistant to climatic tensions. Therefore, changing the cultivation pattern will transform the agricultural trade.