Elite approach and the future of Islamic civilization

The purpose of this study is to identify possible scenarios in the future of modern Islamic civilization.

The method used in this research is the mixed method. This method is a combination of techniques for analyzing trends and drivers, cross-matrix matrix, questionnaire and scenario writing. The statistical population includes university professors and specialists in the field of Islamic civilization and the sample size was selected using the Cochran's formula.

The findings of the research are the identification of three scenarios. In the first scenario, Islamic civilization will experience a decline and collapse and will be in a state of weakness and passivity. In the second scenario, Islamic civilization will be in a stable state and there will be no progress or decline. In the third scenario, Islamic civilization will experience progress and development and will change dramatically. This scenario has been identified as a strong and likely scenario due to its high compatibility value.

If the components affecting the Islamic civilization are in a harmonious situation, in the future, the new Islamic civilization affected by these components will ascend and progress.