Changes in Cause of Death among the Older Adults and Its Effect on Increasing Life Expectancy in Iran

The rate of the increase in life expectancy has slowed down during the last two or three decades in Iran. In this study, we examined the role of change in thecause of death older adults in increasing life expectancy in Iran between 2006 and 2016.

Death data by age, sex, and cause in Iran between 2006 and 2016 were obtained from the death registration and classification system of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. Using the Brass-Trussell and generalized Benett-Horiuchi method, underreporting of child and adult death registration was corrected. Then, using the Arriaga decomposition method, the role of age groups and causes of death of Iranian older adults in increasing life expectancy at birth was calculated.

Men’s life expectancy at birth increased by 3.7 years during 2006 to 2016, and the contribution of older adult’s death changes on this increase was estimated at 2 years. Out of the total increase of 3.1 years in women’s life expectancy, 1.57 years was related to changes in the older adults’ cause of death. Furthermore, 74% and 57% of the role of change in the cause of death among older men and women in increasing the life expectancy was related to cardiovascular diseases.

Considering the transition of age structure in the coming decades, transition of death trend to older ages is expected to continue. The results of this study showed that it is necessary to pay more attention to diseases that affect older people in policy priorities.