Modeling and Predicting the Risk of Occurrence of Flood Zones Due to Rainfall Under Climate Change Conditions case study: Gorganrood watershed

floods are known as one of the most important natural disasters. In practice, floods are one of the most devastating weather disasters in the world, both in terms of casualties and financial losses. The purpose of this study is to measure and evaluate the changes in flood zones using the weighting technique in the GIS environment. The method of the present study, according to the nature of the problem and the subject under study, is descriptive-analytical and applied studies. With emphasis on quantitative methods, in the present study, changes in flood zones in Gorganrood watershed based on the use of meteorological station information (synoptic) with a 30-year statistical period (1989 to 2018), land use, vegetation, topographic moisture index Slope, altitude, land lithology, distance from river, river density, erosion, soil science, runoff, simulated precipitation data from LARS-WG model have been modeled and estimated. The general kriging method with the lowest mean estimation error (0.004) and the square root mean error of 82.23 is the best method for interpolation in this study. Also, in combining fuzzy analysis methods with hierarchy to determine the expected estimate, both methods had higher estimates than expected. Findings showed that 800 mm sub-basin of Normab basin in the central part of Maderso, Yale Cheshmeh and Qarnaveh basins in the northeast of Gorganrood watershed with the amount of 500 to 700 mm and the northern parts of Mohammadabad and Ghorchai basins with the amount of 300 mm.